According to a report by Al Jazeera on July 19, 2026, Mehran Kamrava, a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar, said the United States is unlikely to achieve victory in a military conflict with Iran, while warning that Tehran also faces the danger of pushing the confrontation too far if it misjudges the situation.
Kamrava argued that history has shown the limits of military power in prolonged conflicts. He pointed to several major wars in which stronger military forces caused widespread destruction but ultimately failed to secure decisive victories over their opponents.
“The US did not succeed in Vietnam, the Soviets in Afghanistan, the Russians in Ukraine, or the US in Iraq, and they are unlikely to succeed in Iran,” Kamrava told Al Jazeera. “In each of these cases, the dominant power inflicted immense damage, death and destruction, but it never won the war. Just like the others, Iran is not going to beg for mercy.”
Despite his assessment that military success would be difficult for Washington, Kamrava said there is still room for diplomacy to prevent the conflict from escalating further. He stressed that negotiated solutions remain possible if both sides are prepared to make practical compromises.
The political scientist suggested that one potential agreement could involve the United States securing guarantees for the safety of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as security assurances for Gulf nations. In return, Iran could receive commitments from both the US and Israel that it would not face further military attacks.
“There is a way to climb down the escalatory ladder,” Kamrava said. “The question is whether either side is willing to take it….See More