Robert Greenway, a former senior director on the National Security Council and director at the Heritage Foundation, offered a blunt analysis of the ongoing Middle East tension during a recent interview — throwing his full weight behind Donald Trump’s refusal to back G7-led calls for de-escalation between Israel and Iran.
Describing the idea of de-escalation as nothing but a lifeline to Tehran, Greenway didn’t mince words. “This is a distressed property on its way down fast. I don’t think President Trump is eager to buy,” he said, praising Trump’s decision to walk away from any potential G7 appeasement plans.
According to White House leaks, Trump has no intention of supporting a deal that would halt Israel’s defensive actions. Greenway made it clear this was the right move. He noted that previous administrations were “eager to constrain Prime Minister Netanyahu and Israel from taking any offensive action of any kind,” but now, he believes Israel is finally being allowed to fully defend itself — and U.S. interests.
On the ongoing conflict, Greenway broke down Iran’s dwindling firepower, revealing their missile arsenal has taken major hits. “The entirety of Iran’s ballistic missile inventory of February of last year was assessed to be about 3,000. Only about a third of that; perhaps 25% — was long enough, had the range capable of reaching Israel,” he explained. After multiple barrages throughout 2023 and into 2024, “there’s certainly less than 1,000. I would say the number is closer to 500.”
More importantly, Greenway said the Islamic Republic is quickly losing its grip. “It does not control its own airspace. It’s missile production capacity has been eliminated, its launch capacity eliminated by one-third. This condition is not sustainable.”
He also confirmed reports that Israel’s latest strikes have devastated Iran’s command and control centers. “Air defense has been eliminated already. Their air force has been destroyed,” Greenway said. “The command and control, mostly their general officers — 35 of which have been eliminated so far by Israel. The number grows every day.” In his words, “this condition is 100% fatal.”
As the conversation shifted to the nuclear threat, Greenway emphasized the need for U.S. support if deeper strikes become necessary. While Israel is strong, “it does not have the conventional munitions launched from the air in order to attack a hardened, deeply buried bunker,” he said. Facilities at Fordow and Natanz sit over 300 feet underground — reachable only by U.S.-supplied bunker busters.
Israel, according to Greenway, could bury these targets, “but they can’t damage or destroy the contents of it under current conditions.”
As Iran’s systems fall apart, Greenway believes time and air superiority have now shifted. “For the first time in quite a while, time is on Israel’s side,” he concluded.
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