According to the New York Times report on Sunday November 9, 2025, regional intelligence officials and analysts have expressed grave concerns over the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, warning that another direct conflict is not only probable but imminent without diplomatic breakthroughs.
Following U.S. strikes in June 2025, which President Trump described as having “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear enrichment capabilities, evidence suggests the program’s core elements persist.
The expiration of the 2015 nuclear accord last month has reinstated stringent sanctions, while stalled negotiations leave Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium sufficient for up to 11 nuclear weapons unmonitored and potentially concealed. This opacity, coupled with Iran’s refusal to grant access to suspected sites, has heightened fears of preemptive Israeli action, potentially sparking a broader regional war.
Central to these apprehensions is Iran’s ongoing development of a new uranium enrichment facility dubbed Pickaxe Mountain, located near the Natanz complex. International inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency have been denied entry to this and other undeclared locations, exacerbating suspicions about the program’s resilience.
Reports indicate that approximately 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity survived the summer conflict, though its precise whereabouts remain unknown. Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, have rejected U.S. demands for halting enrichment and direct talks as “unacceptable,” while signaling openness to indirect negotiations contingent on security guarantees and reparations for prior damages.
Experts portrayed the precarious equilibrium, with Iran’s missile production ramped up to 24-hour operations and plans to launch volleys of up to 2,000 projectiles simultaneously to saturate Israeli defenses in any attack. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group anticipates a more forceful Iranian retaliation than the 500-missile barrage in June, viewing the current posture as an effort to restore deterrence amid perceived vulnerabilities. View, More,
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