A political analyst has predicted a major hurdle for the African Democratic Congress (ADC)-led coalition ahead of the 2027 presidential election, warning that Yoruba voters will not align with a candidate from the southeast.
Speaking during an interview with Symfoni TV, he noted that the current political dynamics heavily favor President Bola Tinubu’s continued influence, making it unlikely for another southern candidate to gain widespread Yoruba support.
He argued that Peter Obi’s chances of victory remain slim unless Atiku Abubakar withdraws from the race to create a strong north-south alliance.
According to him, the north, with 19 states and Abuja, enjoys a more unified voting bloc compared to the south, which remains divided along regional lines.
He stressed that the lack of a united southern front, given past leadership tenures from the southwest and south-south, will weaken the coalition’s chances and ultimately benefit Tinubu and the APC.
The analyst maintained that unless strategic political calculations are made, the coalition could suffer a decisive defeat in 2027.
In his words, “Except if we are saying Atiku should step down, and then Peter Obi gets it, then the northern people will support him with a trusted and very popular person from northern Nigeria.”
“Don’t forget, northern Nigeria has 19 states, including Abuja, 20. And in southern Nigeria here, in the south, east, out of the south, and out of the west, we have 17 states. Is there any unifying factor, electoral unifying factor, in the South? No one.”
“But you can have an electoral unifying factor. There are people that will sit down in northern Nigeria and say, oh, this is our brother; let us vote for him. Who is that person here?”
“Yoruba will not follow the direction of the southeast candidate. The vote will not be divided there. That is it. Is there any unifying factor here in the South? Southsouth, southeast, southwest.”
“No. You will see, hey, I can’t follow the Igbo. Hey, Yoruba has done it two times.
Yoruba want to go and do it two times in Tinubu. Hey, South-South has done it in six years in Jonathan.”
“Based on that, before you know what is happening, what is supposed to be our united force from the south will diminish, will scatter, and those people will escape.”
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